Those daily updates on the number of local COVID-19 cases are inaccurate. They represent official numbers- confirmed coronavirus cases. The Center of Disease Control (CDC), local medical prognosticators, and foreign studies indicate that the actual number of daily cases might be five to ten times greater than the daily confirmed and reported caseload. So if 220 cases here daily doesn’t cause you any concern, would you pay attention with 1,000 or 2,000 daily cases? Asymptomatic people (perhaps 80% of the cases) are less likely to get tested (since they feel OK) but can be so-called “super-spreaders”, so this invisible game of tag goes on. Estimates suggest that 20% of COVID-19 carriers are responsible for 80% of local virus transmissions.
We will probably have the vaccines available by year end, but they might be just 50% effective. Flu vaccines annually are only about 50-60% effective. Yet even partially effective vaccines can mitigate virus impacts. Many people simply won’t get a vaccine… ever. Only 45% of Americans get the annual flu vaccine. And the people who do get a COVID-19 vaccine, do you think they’ll then assume they’ve acquired super-immunity status, and thus no longer adhere to rules about mask-wearing and social distancing? Not a smart idea. Plus, who knows how long any new vaccine’s effectiveness will last? Smallpox, polio, and measles vaccines provide long-lasting staying power. But only time will tell the efficacy of a single COVID-19 vaccination and if possible virus mutations down the road might necessitate annual vaccines.
We obviously need to do a better job here quarantining confirmed patients. Sending a pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic coronavirus patient home where others live is a possible ticking time bomb. Good luck segregating completely in Hawai`i with so many postage stamp-sized units, multiple generations in single houses, and neighbors living so close by that you not only hear them, but you can identify the song they’re singing in the shower.
The reality is- we’re tired. Many locally have done their best to isolate and do it all- working, parenting, providing, Zooming, creating- and they’re ready to come out and play. But don’t. COVID-19 is an insidious insider, takes no vacations, mandates no time off, and doesn’t sleep at night. Stay connected digitally, but don’t let your guard down. The “he’s a good guy”/“she’s probably safe” logic is problematic and underestimates how surreptitious this invisible droplet villain really is.
Think about it…