#midweek

Those daily updates on the number of local COVID-19 cases are inaccurate. They represent official numbers- confirmed coronavirus cases. The Center of Disease Control (CDC), local medical prognosticators, and foreign studies indicate that the actual number of daily cases might be five to ten times greater than the daily confirmed and reported caseload. So if 220 cases here daily doesn’t cause you any concern, would you pay attention with 1,000 or 2,000 daily cases? Asymptomatic people (perhaps 80% of the cases) are less likely to get tested (since they feel OK) but can be so-called “super-spreaders”, so this invisible game of tag goes on. Estimates suggest that 20% of COVID-19 carriers are responsible for 80% of local virus transmissions. 

We will probably have the vaccines available by year end, but they might be just 50% effective. Flu vaccines annually are only about 50-60% effective. Yet even partially effective vaccines can mitigate virus impacts. Many people simply won’t get a vaccine… ever. Only 45% of Americans get the annual flu vaccine. And the people who do get a COVID-19 vaccine, do you think they’ll then assume they’ve acquired super-immunity status, and thus no longer adhere to rules about mask-wearing and social distancing? Not a smart idea. Plus, who knows how long any new vaccine’s effectiveness will last? Smallpox, polio, and measles vaccines provide long-lasting staying power. But only time will tell the efficacy of a single COVID-19 vaccination and if possible virus mutations down the road might necessitate annual vaccines.

We obviously need to do a better job here quarantining confirmed patients. Sending a pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic coronavirus patient home where others live is a possible ticking time bomb. Good luck segregating completely in Hawai`i with so many postage stamp-sized units, multiple generations in single houses, and neighbors living so close by that you not only hear them, but you can identify the song they’re singing in the shower.

The reality is- we’re tired. Many locally have done their best to isolate and do it all- working, parenting, providing, Zooming, creating- and they’re ready to come out and play. But don’t. COVID-19 is an insidious insider, takes no vacations, mandates no time off, and doesn’t sleep at night. Stay connected digitally, but don’t let your guard down. The “he’s a good guy”/“she’s probably safe” logic is problematic and underestimates how surreptitious this invisible droplet villain really is.

Think about it…

The numbers are numbing. Daily counts of “confirmed” coronavirus cases. Estimates indicate that reported numbers might actually represent just 10% of the new cases. The COVID-19 scourge treats each host individually, sparing some from major health problems while greatly impacting others. Long-term impacts? We now know that even healthy, younger people can suffer greatly. Yeh, you may live, but how do heart damage, blood clots, memory loss, hallucinations, and/or kidney failure fit in with your party plans?

“143 new cases today on Oahu” is a lead story that seemingly affects just one-tenth of one percent of our state’s population (1.4-million). But what if that reported number represents just one-tenth of the actual new cases which surfaced that day? Mask-less, asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic, non-socially distancing mavericks are out there, so maybe our coronavirus numbers are much larger, as most experts suggest. Or is that fear-mongering? Would 1,430 cases a day cause mask-less rebels to think twice?

Ah, but in these post-truth days where facts are often treated as opinions, what do the experts know, right? Well, here’s what we do know. People without masks or sans distancing concerns might think that their risk is manini or that they’re impervious to this ailment, but they’re not. 

Yes, you’ve suffered the indignity of being somewhat quarantined by “the man” for the better part of four months, but darn it, you deserve to roam freely because you said so, and you deserve your beach beer bong! Well, freedom has a price. And if we’re to win this “war on coronavirus” before better treatments come to fruition, than mask up, be a patriot and support the cause. Asymptomatic patients can carry high virus loads, thus spreading the virus to others unknowingly (or uncaringly?).

We want our economy back; we’ll have to earn it. Really sick people don’t spend money, they cost money. COVID-19 takes no holidays, cares not about social status, earnings, ethnicity, or SAT scores. It simply hops from host to host via a free ride. Wash up, physically distance, AND wear masks (not an either/or choice), and we might cause this invisible force to wither away within six weeks. Or continue to play Russian roulette with a ruthless enemy. PTSD and mental anguish with an on-again, off-again economy ensure longer-term impacts beyond the virus’ obvious effects. Being vigilant and responsible is really not a choice. It’s a necessity.

Think about it… 

Well, that was close! Hurricane Douglas took a northwesterly tour above the island chain on July 26^th, and we lucked out… again. Storms/hurricanes Kenneth (2005), Flossie (2007), Felicia (2009), Iselle (2014), Darby (2016), Madeline (2016), Lane (2018) all showed “big body” but then huffed and puffed their ways pretty much around us. Stiff wind shears and cooler waters in our midst are two factors that historically mitigate westward-heading storms that we normally see. But beware the next one, or the tempest that approaches from the south. Ignorance is not bliss.

While we all lament the high pressure this unforgiving coronavirus is causing, thank goodness for the high pressure system that encircles our islands and usually deflects or denigrates approaching hurricanes that emanate in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Yet our ocean waters appear warmer than in recent years, and our high-pressure winds have shifted a bit; thus we appear more vulnerable to a direct strike this year, or next year, or… well, you get the picture. Dot (August, 1959), Iwa (November, 1982), and Iniki (September, 1992) proved that while we’re truly a tiny speck in a vast ocean, shift happens. It would be foolish to let our guard down and not prepare well as these summer/autumn natural events take shape. Because rest unassured, we will be hit again, at some level, some day.

Iwilei Costco was not a madhouse right before Douglas’ flight arrived (everyone already has toilet paper and water supplies from COVID-19 hoarding). Shelters had some issues- there are too few in number, and volunteers were possibly scared away amid social distancing concerns). Perhaps the overall lack of Douglas panic can be explained by the state we’re all in right now- fragile, fatigued, world weary, and by the sense that “really… with COVID- 19 cases on the rise and so many concerns about health, school, the economy, and our futures, we really have to deal with nature’s nautical tease!?” Shelter in place at home? That request was easy- we’ve been doing it for the last four months.

So yes, keep your guard (and your facemasks) up. As the old adage says: Man plans and God laughs. But plan we must. We have no direct control over nature, but we can maintain absolute control over ourselves and how we (re)act. We must exude hope and keep positive vibes coming, in general, because the sun always does rise tomorrow.

Think about it…

Dateline, August, 2023… It seems so long ago, so far away. Yet it was just a few years ago that Hawai`i and most of the planet Earth had to deal with that equal opportunity offender, COVID-19. At times it was so bad, so pervasive, and so divisive.  Thankfully, even most renegades finally put their masks on, the virus flare ups died down, and then we got treatments as we’ve arrived at the new normal. I do look back and marvel at some of the coronavirus realities that truly made a vital and viral impact…

…Time spent in close quarters with others, getting along for sanity sake, actually listening when others were talking, working, eating, entertaining and schooling as a family. With so little fresh TV programming of note and no live sports, we managed to entertain ourselves for months and months. We even put down our digital devices often enough to listen to one another; yes, vanquishing trolls does grow tiresome. Houses became homes with improved family unity.

…Chivalrous tales of health care first responders putting their lives on the line daily with insufficient protection, putting themselves in harm’s way, but I shuddered at stories of how these very same saviors had their work hours cut back as the virus settled down, but elective surgeries and regular appointments took a back seat to a fear of medical facilities.

…Hordes of volunteers gathering, packing, and handing out food week after week in the hot sun simply because it was the right thing to do. Empathy. Volunteers smiled through masks, as there were no barriers and no judgment; it was humanity simply heeding the call, acting appropriately to help out neighbors they didn’t even know.

…Neighbors shopping and stopping by the homes of the enfeebled and elderly, satisfying physical, spiritual, and emotional needs. Retailers paying employees even while closed to help provide funds for sustenance and rent for worker’s families as businesses barely hung on, or didn’t. I even remember that 2020 winter window where wearing masks helped lower seasonal flu numbers, which saved additional lives. An unplanned benefit!

2020 is a haunting memory. Yet there were some outstanding moments and lessons learned. Relationships salvaged, families bonded anew, employees realized that loyalty is a two-way street. The list of good things that came out of that darkness gives me renewed hope, as long as we don’t suffer severe memory lapses.

Think about it…

We hear it far too often- the widening rift in this country. Even the seemingly simple concept of wearing a mask to protect the human species from the coronavirus scourge takes on a red vs. blue tone. Ridiculous. We are not a nation of pure red and blue. Yes, some states and people lean right and some lean left. But we’re actually a purple country.

Purple is cool. Prince serenaded us with “Purple Rain”. Lavender, violets, blueberries eggplants, and amethysts are all shades of purple. And thank goodness for Deep Purple, or we wouldn’t have the incredible “Smoke on the Water” (the live version from Japan, of course). The Purple Heart is awarded to soldiers displaying great valor.

For every rural or reddish area of this nation, there’s an offsetting city or college town that leans blue. One purple-impassioned author pegs purple-loving people as those who live in a dream world. Ah, if only… Purple has also been tied to royalty, wisdom, dignity, mystery, power, independence, creativity, and magic. So, purple is all over the place, much like the belief systems of many Americans, even red/blue leaners. 

Purple is not one of the colors on the visible spectrum; you have to search deeper to find it… how poetic. The Purpleologist website (yes, it’s real) suggests that the color purple can calm nerves and the mind, is uplifting, offers creativity, and encourages spirituality. Perhaps we could all use a little more purple in our lives.

We need to stop allowing separatists to exacerbate the very real problems which can drive a deeper wedge into our “united” nation. People disagree all the time, and then things get resolved. Hawai`i, of course, had an esteemed senator at one point named Daniel Inouye. He knew the value of reaching across the aisle; he rationalized that compromise was necessary to move things forward at times. He partnered often with Alaska’s Republican senator, Ted Stevens, to get things done. Yes, a progressive and a conservative actually worked together well in an era of “purple reign” in Washington, D.C. Imagine that.

Alas, those days and those leaders have been replaced by far too many who shirk their appointed duties while simply pandering to keep their jobs. Maybe we’ll see a purple resurgence in 2020. Red and blue together, a refreshing thought for the beleaguered masses. Working together for the common good; it’s not so purple-xing!

Think about it…

With much at stake, some ponder if we should be assessing some of our fraying systems here. Education, tourism, traffic, housing, education, working from home- the list goes on. We should always seek to improve things via great forethought and action (plus accountability, often lacking locally… but that’s another story).

But right now, we need a reality check. People are suffering. We don’t have five years to revamp our major economic engine- tourism. Over 200,000 jobs statewide were supported by tourism last year, according to the annual Hawai`i Visitor Statistics report. By year end, an estimated 60% of Hawai`i households will be a single paycheck away from having trouble paying bills- rent, food, medical, transportation, et al. Over 700,000 residents could be in need of assistance, according to Aloha United Way’s 2020 ALICE Report (Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed). These are working households, added to those already in poverty and dire straits. And let’s not forget the mental stress this pandemic is causing. The tax on that silent threat is forthcoming.

Suggestions that hotels “simply” raise rates by 20% to help offset a 20% loss in visitors (or two million people annually) to keep our tax base strong through 2021 is naïve, illogical, and simplistic. As Waikiki and the Neighbor Island doors re-open, hotel beds will not be filled at 80% capacity any time soon. Room rates will be lowered as businesses try to entice tourists back. Economics 101. And if rules are followed, illegal B&Bs won’t bounce back. Some economists have projected a five-year path (whatever that path might look like) to get us back to the $17.75 billion that visitors spent here in 2019. 

Yes, we need actionable, forward thinking. Call Elon Musk about a missile site; call the Mayo Clinic about an East/West medical consortium; convince Silicon Valley neophytes to set up an enterprise in paradise. Practical, alternative energy businesses might thrive here. There’s a lot of capital waiting for entrepreneurial opportunities today. Just don’t expect many new concepts to start impacting our economy for years. We need answers for locals in August and also in February of 2021. We need our statewide ‘ohana to ensure that Hawai`i stays vibrant, unique, and livable. Everyone will be tested. Not everything will get done (hello, potholes). Reality insists that we deal with today’s issues today as we search within and without for tomorrow’s opportunities.

Think about it…

A few unrelated items to ponder this week as we navigate new beginnings…

Kaiser High was acknowledged in April as the #1 public school in Hawaii and was also tied for #1 in the entire United States among public high schools in math and reading proficiency, according to U.S. News and World Report. “It’s Academic Hawai`i”, a weekly, academic game show featuring some of the brightest students from local high schools, ran from 2012-2018 on KFVE. The show had only one three-time champion in seven seasons- Kaiser High School. Kaiser’s principal commented on the local/national math ranking by saying “we challenge ourselves”, according to Pacific Business News. As it should be! Go Cougars! It’s always great to see our public schools earning deserved academic kudos both locally and nationally…

Moving on, comedian Dennis Miller once said that the toughest job in the world was being a bank security guard in Alaska: 20 people walk into a bank… they’re all wearing masks (insert laughter here). Well, reality nowadays is- 20 people walk into a bank, socially distanced of course, and they’re all wearing masks. Suddenly, a guy walks in without a mask. Everyone gets really scared… As Bob Dylan sang 20 years ago: “People are crazy and times are strange / I’m locked in tight, I’m out of range / I used to care, but things have changed.” 

Finally… we simply can’t seem to do it. As a species. We’ve paid the price, darn it, and now we have a right to go out unencumbered as we frolic and play. Without masks, without physical distancing, without practicing safe sanitization. Well… someone forgot to tell Beelzebub, a/k/a/ COVID-19. Because it’s still here and it also wants to play, and (for now) it’s here to stay, thanks to human transmission and letting our guard down. COVID-19 appears to be mutating, morphing- and who knows what that portends. We’ve already seen death and long-term damage via more than eight million (confirmed) cases worldwide in just seven months. We need treatments, we need a vaccine, and yes, we want our freedom. But for today’s purpose, what we really need is to have a clue, sports fans. As stoics love to remind us, freedom is not free; well, neither is winning this biological war. So put on your equipment, give space, and keep fighting the good fight, brothers and sisters. No slackers allowed.

Think about it…