We’ve been lucky. You know it; I know it. As we enter hurricane season this week, we must always remain vigilant and prepare accordingly, even during the doldrums. Because as anyone who’s been to Vegas knows, luck can change (except for those few we all know who simply insist that they win every time after they come back… amazing, or untrue?).
According to the Weather Company (an IBM business), August is the peak month for hurricanes in the central Pacific region, with many more events over the past 50+ years (74 total) than in the second most active month (July, with 45). September ranks third over the past 50+ years with 37 tropical cyclones.
If you look at our region’s hurricane tracking map over the past 30 years, you’ll realize just how lucky we really have been, as storm systems swerving like wayward drivers at times mostly missed our shores (and interiors). El Niño weather patterns affect water temperature, which affects the severity and direction of storms heading (or not heading) our way. It was an El Niño effect that blasted us with the costliest hurricane in Hawaiian history- Iniki, back in 1992. And Hurricane Iwa (also El Niño-ed) caused great damage and havoc locally 10-years earlier.
While we’ve had our fair share of swings and misses over the past few decades, it’s likely just a matter of time, energy, and ocean factors before we’re inundated with the next “perfect storm”, though any hurricane debacle would be far from perfect. We’ve had our share of near misses, tropical storms, and distant hurricanes dump plenty of water, knock down trees, and result in flooding, but we’ve been lucky (there’s that word again) that we’ve not taken a profound, direct hit in decades.
Hurricane season in Hawai`i runs through November 30. Last year we saw just one tropical cyclone in our region- a below average number. Hurricane Iwa visited us in late-November, 1982. Hurricane Douglas missed us in July, 2020. Erick, Barbara, Olivia, Norman, Lane, Fernanda- they all dropped by (as tropical storms) or managed to stay away over the past six years. These are not invited guests. But they will come.
Stock up now on basic supplies and stay attuned to local weather reports, your first line of defense. And don’t take our lucky past as any sort of guarantee. The next one just may be on-target, intense, and devastating.
Think about it…